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Scientific, Technological and Production Journal
ISSN 2079–3332 (print)
ISSN 3034-6835 (online)
founded in 2001

Project decisions reliability assessment of definition opencast mining parameters and indicators

Original articles: 2024 No 5

Project decisions reliability assessment of definition opencast mining parameters and indicators

DOI: 10.56195/20793332_2024_5_60_66

Read in pdf S. I. Fomin, A. Lelen, A. S. Govorov
  1. St. Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
p. 60-66, No.5/2024
Abstract:
Introduction. When designing a opencast mine, it is necessary to establish the boundaries of the efficiency zone and develop scenarios for the implementation of the project, recommendations for the formation of the working zone of the opencast mine during the operation of the field, taking into account the stochastic nature of the initial geological data. The higher the recoverable value of minerals, the higher the costs of geological exploration are acceptable to reduce the risk of non-confirmation of the initial design information. The uncertainty of the implementation of design solutions for the development of deposits is explained by a number of factors. Methodology. The reliability of the implementation of the adopted design decisions decreases sharply with the increase in the forecasting period. It is inexpedient to make realistic forecasts for more than 15 years due to the growth of project and financial risk over time, as well as the discounting factor. Errors in long-term forecasting are compensated by the fact that the economic value of indicators of the distant future is leveled by the procedure of discounting multi-time costs. Methods of quantitative analysis of project risk are sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and risk modeling by Monte Carlo. It is expedient to assess the sensitivity of a criterion economic indicator (for example, net present value) to various types of deviations in the initial data accepted at the initial stage of design by developing scenarios for the implementation of the project in various mining and mining and geological conditions, taking into account the volatility of prices and demand in the mineral market. Conclusions. Systematic consideration of scenarios for the development of the working area of the open pit and the construction of its contours is achieved by taking into account the mutual influence of parameters and indicators, such as the angle of slope of the pit wall, the marginal stripping factor, the boundary cut-off content of useful components. Summary. Establishment in the design documentation of the opencast mine productivity that is possible in terms of mining technical factors, close to the production capacity of mining equipment, leads to the absence of a reserve for increasing productivity at the mining enterprise. To ensure the possibility of prompt response to changes in the external conditions of the project implementation, it is advisable to build a reserve of production capacity. On the one hand, the formation and maintenance of reserves reduces the risk of not achieving the design productivity of the opencast mine, and on the other hand, it is associated with additional costs. The creation of reserves provides an opportunity to stabilize the productivity of the open pit in a certain range of volatility of the external conditions of the project implementation.
Keywords:
scripts of realization, project, deposit, opencast mining, prediction, reliability, strategies
For citation:
Fomin S. I., Lelen A., Govorov A. S. Project decisions reliability assessment of definition opencast mining parameters and indicators. Mine Surveying and Subsurface Use. 2024;(5):60-66. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.56195/20793332_2024_5_60_66.
Information about the authors:
  1. Sergey I. Fomin – Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor of the Department of Development of Mineral Deposits, St. Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, https://orcid. org/0000-0002-0939-1189, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
  2. Aleksa Lelen – postgraduate student of the department of construction of Development of Mineral Deposits, St. Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, https://orcid. org/0000-0003-1358-1142, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
  3. Alexey S. Govorov – postgraduate student of the department of construction of Development of Mineral Deposits, St. Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, https://orcid. org/0000-0001-9071-862X, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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