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Scientific, Technological and Production Journal
ISSN 2079–3332 (print)
ISSN 3034-6835 (online)
founded in 2001

The impact of oil price volatility on the development of hard-to-recover reserves in Russia

Original articles: 2025 No 5

The impact of oil price volatility on the development of hard-to-recover reserves in Russia

DOI: 10.56195/20793332-2025-25-6-65-71

Read in pdf V. S. Poplavsky
  1. Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation Cbonds.ru JSC, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
p. 65-71, No.6/2025
Abstract:
The article examines the impact of oil price volatility on geological exploration strategies and the development of hardtorecover oil reserves in Russia (2005–2025). During low-price periods (2014–2016, 2020, 2022–2025), exploration drilling volumes declined by 38 %, with activity shifting to Eastern Siberia and the Arctic (including the Vostok Oil project). The share of horizontal drilling rose from 11 % to 95 %. State support measures-such as the Additional Income Tax (AIT) and Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) benefits-along with flexible management models (“unfinished wells”) sustained investment levels despite an average Urals crude price of $62/barrel by 2025. Digital geological models reduced drilling risks by 20–30 %. Price volatility exacerbates technological lag in hydraulic fracturing and chronic underfunding of exploration (95 % of current production stems from Soviet-era fields), creating a threat of reserve deficits after 2035. The findings can inform resource security strategies, tax policy adjustments, and technology import substitution initiatives for oil companies and policymakers.
Keywords:
oil price volatility, hard-to-recover reserves, geological exploration, horizontal drilling, import substitution, additional income tax, Arctic, digital geological models, technological lag, state support
For citation:
Poplavsky V.S. The impact of oil price volatility on the development of hard-to-recover reserves in Russia. Mine Surveying and Subsurface Use. 2025;25(6):65-71. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.56195/20793332-2025-25-6-65-71.
Information about the authors:
  1. Victor S. Poplavsky – PhD Candidate, Commodity Markets Analyst, Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, Cbonds.ru JSC, 196006, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: senior.poplavskii@ yandex.ru; https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2709-3107
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